Who Decides the Truth in Prediction Markets
Polymarket added a proposer whitelist to its UMA oracle under UMIP-189. A taxonomy of resolution failure modes and which oracle designs survive each.
Polymarket added a proposer whitelist to its UMA oracle under UMIP-189. A taxonomy of resolution failure modes and which oracle designs survive each.
Off-exchange settlement removed an FTX failure mode while leaving others intact. Mapping counterparty risk in ClearLoop, Interchange, and BitGo.
Lightning public capacity fell then recovered while volume grew ~266% YoY. Ark hit mainnet in 2026. A mechanism-level comparison.
Orb biometrics, NFC chips, and state wallets anchor personhood differently. Each breaks differently, and agent delegation inherits the break.
Base's June 2026 halts reopened the single-sequencer debate. How based sequencing and slashable preconfirmations work, and what they cost.
Polymarket added a proposer whitelist to its UMA oracle under UMIP-189. A taxonomy of resolution failure modes and which oracle designs survive each.
Off-exchange settlement removed an FTX failure mode while leaving others intact. Mapping counterparty risk in ClearLoop, Interchange, and BitGo.
Lightning public capacity fell then recovered while volume grew ~266% YoY. Ark hit mainnet in 2026. A mechanism-level comparison.
Orb biometrics, NFC chips, and state wallets anchor personhood differently. Each breaks differently, and agent delegation inherits the break.
Base's June 2026 halts reopened the single-sequencer debate. How based sequencing and slashable preconfirmations work, and what they cost.
A -54% average launch year discredited the points meta. Exchange-owned rails and futarchy launchpads change who gets allocated, not float and FDV.